Pan-European backcasting exercise, enriched with regional perspective, and including a list of short-term policy options

This deliverable reports on the results of the third and final pan-European stakeholder meeting and secondly, on the enrichment with a Pilot Area and regional perspective. The main emphasis is on backcasting as a means to arrive at long-term strategies and short-term (policy) actions

Resilience trinity: Safeguarding ecosystem functioning and services across three different time horizons and decision contexts

Ensuring ecosystem resilience is an intuitive approach to safeguard the functioning of ecosystems and hence the future provisioning of ecosystem services (ES). However, resilience is a multi‐faceted concept that is difficult to operationalize. Focusing on resilience mechanisms, such as diversity, network architectures or adaptive capacity, has recently been suggested as means to operationalize resilience. Still, the focus on mechanisms is not specific enough. We suggest a conceptual framework, resilience trinity, to facilitate management based on resilience mechanisms in three distinctive decision contexts and time‐horizons: 1) reactive, when there is an imminent threat to ES resilience and a high pressure to act, 2) adjustive, when the threat is known in general but there is still time to adapt management and 3) provident, when time horizons are very long and the nature of the threats is uncertain, leading to a low willingness to act. Resilience has different interpretations and implications at these different time horizons, which also prevail in different disciplines. Social ecology, ecology and engineering are often implicitly focussing on provident, adjustive or reactive resilience, respectively, but these different notions of resilience and their corresponding social, ecological and economic tradeoffs need to be reconciled. Otherwise, we keep risking unintended consequences of reactive actions, or shying away from provident action because of uncertainties that cannot be reduced. The suggested trinity of time horizons and their decision contexts could help ensuring that longer‐term management actions are not missed while urgent threats to ES are given priority

Multicolour-banding fluorescence in situ hybridisation (mbanding-FISH) to identify recurrent chromosomal alterations in breast tumour cell lines

Recurrent chromosome breakpoints in tumour cells may point to cancer genes, but not many have been molecularly characterised. We have used multicolour-banding fluorescence in situ hybridisation (mbanding-FISH) on breast tumour cell lines to identify regions of chromosome break created by inversions, duplications, insertions and translocations on chromosomes 1, 5, 8, 12 and 17. We delineate a total of 136 regions of break, some of them occurring with high frequency. We further describe two examples of dual-colour FISH characterisation of breakpoints, which target the 1p36 and 5p11–12 regions. Both breaks involve genes whose function is unknown to date. The mbanding-FISH strategy constitutes an efficient first step in the search for potential cancer genes

A Genome-Wide Association Study of Diabetic Kidney Disease in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes

dentification of sequence variants robustly associated with predisposition to diabetic kidney disease (DKD) has the potential to provide insights into the pathophysiological mechanisms responsible. We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of DKD in type 2 diabetes (T2D) using eight complementary dichotomous and quantitative DKD phenotypes: the principal dichotomous analysis involved 5,717 T2D subjects, 3,345 with DKD. Promising association signals were evaluated in up to 26,827 subjects with T2D (12,710 with DKD). A combined T1D+T2D GWAS was performed using complementary data available for subjects with T1D, which, with replication samples, involved up to 40,340 subjects with diabetes (18,582 with DKD). Analysis of specific DKD phenotypes identified a novel signal near GABRR1 (rs9942471, P = 4.5 x 10(-8)) associated with microalbuminuria in European T2D case subjects. However, no replication of this signal was observed in Asian subjects with T2D or in the equivalent T1D analysis. There was only limited support, in this substantially enlarged analysis, for association at previously reported DKD signals, except for those at UMOD and PRKAG2, both associated with estimated glomerular filtration rate. We conclude that, despite challenges in addressing phenotypic heterogeneity, access to increased sample sizes will continue to provide more robust inference regarding risk variant discovery for DKD.Peer reviewe

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms

Soil parameter variability affecting simulated fieldscale water balance, erosion and phosphorus losses

Field-scale modelling is widely used as a means to look into interdependencies of processes and to assess potential effects of agricultural management practices as well as of climate and socio-economic scenarios. Generalisation from field-scale results to cover all agricultural land in a catchment by using typical soilcrop- slope combinations has been restricted by a lack of information for the systematic parameterisation of soils. Data from single experimental fields are seldom representative for the whole respective catchment. In this study typical soil profiles for mineral agricultural soils in Finland are defined. Key parameters describing e.g. the texture and water holding capacity of soils, were generated from existing soil data using expert knowledge and are aimed to be used for field-scale modelling when the target is not to model a particular field but soils of certain type in general. Estimates for water balance and phosphorus losses, obtained with the ICECREAM model by applying these data sets, were realistic and compatible with experimental results measured in Finland.;Peltomittakaavaista mallinnusta käytetään yleisesti silloin,kun tarkastellaan prosessien kuten pintavalunnan ja perkolaation välisiä riippuvuussuhteita, arvioidaan toimenpiteitä maataloudesta tulevien huuhtoumien vähentämiseksi tai silloin kun halutaan arvioida ilmasto- tai sosio-ekonomisten skenaarioiden hahmottaman tulevaisuuden mahdollisia vaikutuksia vesitaseeseen, eroosioon ja ravinteiden huuhtoumaan. Peltokohtaisen mallinnustuloksen laajentaminen koskemaan koko valuma-alueen maatalousmaata on teknisesti mahdollista käyttämällä tyypillisen maaperän, pellon kaltevuuden ja viljelykasvin muodostamia yhdistelmiä. Tämän lähestymistavan käyttöä on toistaiseksi rajoittanut tarvittavan tiedon puute maaperän systemaattiseksi parametrisoimiseksi. Yksittäisen kenttäkokeen tulos on harvoin edustava koko valuma-alueen mittakaavassa. Tässä tutkimuksessa esitetään yksi tapa ryhmitellä maaperän fysikaalisia ominaisuuksia siten, että niistä voidaan johtaa useita maaperäkohtaisia tyypillisiä parametrisointeja. Nämä tyyppiprofiiliparametrisoinnit kuvaavat kivennäismaalla sijaitsevien peltojen ominaisuuksia Suomessa. Mallinnusta varten maaperän ominaisuustiedot, kuten tekstuuri ja vedenpidätyskyky, johdettiin olemassa olevasta maaperäaineistosta. Tyyppiprofiiliparametrisointia voidaan käyttää silloin kun tarkoituksena ei ole mallintaa yhtä tiettyä peltoa vaan tiettyä maalajia olevia peltoja laajemmin. Kun tätä parametrisointia käytettiin ICECREAM-mallissa, saadut simulointitulokset olivat vesitaseen ja fosforin osalta realistisia ja vastasivat Suomessa kenttäkokeissa saatuja tuloksia

Measured and simulated effects of sophisticated drainage techniques on groundwater level and runoff hydrochemistry in areas of boreal acid sulphate soils

To abate the environmental problems caused by the severe acidity and high metal concentrations in rivers draining acid sulphate (AS) soils of Western Finland, control drainage (CD) and lime filter drainage (LFD), and their combination, were investigated. The effectiveness of these best management practices (BMPs) on drainage water quality was studied on plot scale in two locations. In Ilmajoki, where the sulphidic materials are more than 2 m below the soil surface, CD efficiently reduced the concentrations of sulphate, aluminium, manganese and iron concentrations and to some extent also increased the pH of the drainage waters. LFD, in contrast, effectively reduced the drainage water acidity and raised the pH level. Decrease of the groundwater level owing to strong evapotranspiration in summer could, however, not be properly prevented by CD. In Mustasaari where sulphidic materials were as shallow as 1 m below soil surface, the positive effects of LFD recognised in Ilmajoki were hardly seen. This shows, that the tested BMPs work properly, and can thus be recommended, for intensively artificially drained AS soils like in Ilmajoki where most of the acidity has already been transported to watercourses. LFD can, however, not be recommended for as yet poorly leached and thus particularly problematic AS soils like in Mustasaari. This is, of course, a drawback of the tested BMP, as it is not effective for the soils which would need it most. The field data were tentatively utilised to test the performance of the HAPSU (Ionic Flow Model for Acid Sulphate Soils) simulation model developed to estimate the loads of harmful substances from AS soils.

Testing a river basin model with sensitivity analysis and autocalibration for an agricultural catchment in SW Finland

Modeling tools are needed to assess (i) the amounts of loading from agricultural sources to water bodies as well as (ii) the alternative management options in varying climatic conditions. These days, the implementation of Water Framework Directive (WFD) has put totally new requirements also for modeling approaches. The physically based models are commonly not operational and thus the usability of these models is restricted for a few selected catchments. But the rewarding feature of these process-based models is an option to study the effect of protection measures on a catchment scale and, up to a certain point, a possibility to upscale the results. In this study, the parameterization of the SWAT model was developed in terms of discharge dynamics and nutrient loads, and a sensitivity analysis regarding discharge and sediment concentration was made. The SWAT modeling exercise was carried out for a 2nd order catchment (Yläneenjoki, 233 km2) of the Eurajoki river basin in southwestern Finland. The Yläneenjoki catchment has been intensively monitored during the last 14 years. Hence, there was enough background information available for both parameter setup and calibration. In addition to load estimates, SWAT also offers possibility to assess the effects of various agricultural management actions like fertilization, tillage practices, choice of cultivated plants, buffer strips, sedimentation ponds and constructed wetlands (CWs) on loading. Moreover, information on local agricultural practices and the implemented and planned protective measures were readily available thanks to aware farmers and active authorities. Here, we studied how CWs can reduce the nutrient load at the outlet of the Yläneenjoki river basin. The results suggested that sensitivity analysis and autocalibration tools incorporated in the model are useful by pointing out the most influential parameters, and that flow dynamics and annual loading values can be modeled with reasonable accuracy with SWAT. Sensitivity analysis thus showed the parameters which should be known better in order to result in more realistic parameter values. Moreover, the scenario runs for CWs made with SWAT revealed the high demand of land area for this protective measure to be substantially effective.;Mallityökalut ovat osoittaneet tarpeellisuutensa arvioitaessamuun muassa maatalouden aiheuttamaa ravinnekuormaa ja vesiensuojelumenetelmien tehokkuutta. Erityisesti Vesipuitedirektiivin (VPD) täytäntöönpanon myötä mallinnustyölle on asetettu konkreettisia haasteita mallitulosten luotettavuuden suhteen. VPD:n puitteissa tarve soveltaa malleja laajoille alueille on myös kasvanut, vaikka perinteisesti prosessipohjaisia malleja on enimmäkseen sovellettu yksittäisillä valuma-alueilla. Vesiensuojelumenetelmien tehokkuuden arvioinnissa prosessipohjaiset mallit ovat avainasemassa, mutta tulosten yleistäminen yhdeltä valuma-alueelta toiselle on edelleen vaikeaa. Tässä tutkimuksessa parametrisoitiin prosessipohjainen SWAT -malli Yläneenjoen valuma-alueelle, joka edustaa tyypillistä lounaissuomalaista maatalousvaltaista aluetta. Yläneenjoen vedenlaatua on seurattu jo pitkään ja havaintojen määrä on riittävä sekä mallisovelluksen luomiseen että kalibrointiin. Lisäksi alueen viljelykäytännöt ja toteutettujen vesiensuojelutoimenpiteiden määrä ovat hyvin tiedossa. Aiempien tutkimusten perusteella mallista valittiin kolmekymmentä parametria, joille herkkyysanalyysi tehtiin. Näin tunnistettiin tärkeimpiin tulosmuuttujiin, virtaamaan ja sedimenttikuormaan, vaikuttavat parametrit. Virtaaman osalta herkimmät parametrit liittyivät pohja- ja pintavesivaluntaa, haihduntaa ja lumen sulamista kuvaaviin prosesseihin, kun taas vastaavasti sedimenttikuormaa selittivät uomaprosesseja ja eroosion kulkeutumista valuma-alueelta kuvaavat parametrit. Tätä tietoa hyödynnettiin mallin kalibroinnissa Rakennetulla SWAT -sovelluksella arvioitiin joen ainevirtaamaan muutoksia sekä tarkasteltiin kosteikkojen vaikutusta jokiveden laatuun. Tulokset osoittivat, että herkkyysanalyysin perusteella mallin kalibrointia voitiin selvästi tehostaa. Parametrivirityksellä saatiin simuloitu virtausdynamiikka ja ainevirtaamat vastaamaan paremmin mitattuja, tosin ainevirtaamien osalta havaintojen vähäinen määrä rajoitti vertailua. Ainehuuhtoumien kalibroinnissa kannattaakin useimmiten pitää lähtökohtana vuotuisia arvoja, koska pitoisuushavaintoihin sisältyy lukuisia epävarmuustekijöitä, joita mallissa on usein mahdotonta ottaa huomioon. Kosteikkosimulointien perusteella voidaan todeta, että merkittävien (n. 20 %) kuormitusvähenemien aikaansaamiseksi kosteikkopinta-alaa tarvittaisiin huomattavan paljon, satoja hehtaareja. Tämä johtuu siitä, että ollakseen tehokas yksittäisen kosteikon tulee olla yläpuoliseen valuma-alueeseensa nähden suuri (n. 2 % tai enemmän). Simulaatioajojen perusteella tuntuvakaan kosteikkojen lukumäärän lisäys ei auta, jos niiden mitoitus on riittämätön. Suuresta pinta-alavaatimuksesta johtuen ei ole realistista laskea vesiensuojelua rakennettavien kosteikkojen varaan, vaan pikemminkin nähdä ne osana laajaa toimenpidevalikoimaa kokonaisvaltaisessa vesiensuojelun suunnittelussa. Rakennettavien kosteikkojen etuna ovat useat kuormitusvähenemien ohessa saatavat lisähyödyt, kuten maiseman elävöityminen ja luonnon monimuotoisuuden, erityisesti linnuston, lisääntyminen, jotka lisäävät kiinnostusta paikallisen väestön keskuudessa